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覺醒人 | 19th Nov 2010 | 一般 | (340 Reads)

香港平地少,樓價長期升?

國際貨幣基金會(IMF) 剛剛發表針對香港樓市的報告,警告上升樓價的泡沫如爆破,可能帶來漫長的通縮和經濟調整,提議香港政府要用調控手段,例如增加物業交易厘印費,尤其是豪宅。個人認為這些預警和香港政府隨時增加土地供應與打擊炒樓的措施,無論是已實行或將會出籠的新措施,極其量都只可緩和樓價上升而不能改變其中期方向,這是指未來三至五年而言。換言之,這些不時出現的干預手段反而可幫助去除泡沫過大的風險,令爆破風險大大減低。   

我們要適應較大樓價升幅的時代已來臨,是因時勢基本上改變了,這是無可避免的,有以下四個主要原因: 

(1) 在土地上起樓到出入伙紙通常要經過三年左右,所以發展商現時買入的土地最快三年後才可給市場提供可住單位。 

(2) 美國的低息環境將最少維持二至三年,因其經濟和就業會持續疲弱,主要是全球化和電腦科技取代人力的結果 (請參考今年64日拙文:世界就業市場大趨勢 的分析),這是結構性問題,這大環境只會令美國的寬鬆貨幣政策持續,很所以香港的利率亦會長期維持在低位 (因港元聯繫匯率關係),繼續支持著樓價。 

(3) 在人民幣長期升值預期和港元(與美元一致)長期偏弱下,加上全球游資傾向流入亞洲尤其是香港,因此地全無匯率風險和外匯管制,故甚受外來投資或投機者歡迎,包括源自中國大陸和海外華僑的資金,所以預期入口通脹和內部需求推動的通脹會上升,實質負利率的環境令樓價很難不高企 

(4) 香港政府為避免重蹈1998年至2003年八萬五政策的錯誤,任何壓抑樓價措施應不再會是強力干預性的,不然高官和將退休的官員們擁有的物業都會一同受到影響,既然大家都坐在同一條物業船上,預期今後的政策風險將會很低。   

最後,下面摘取IMF的有關報告(英文版)給各位參考,看完大家當有自己的看法和策略。  

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund said Hong Kong's accelerating asset inflation risks causing a bust that leads to deflation and an extended economic "downturn," and urged further measures to rein in property prices. 

"Depending on the amplitude [= the greatest distance that a wave, especially a sound or radio wave, vibrates] of the upswing, the resulting downturn could prove both protracted and painful," the IMF said in a report today. The government should consider increasing stamp duties on housing and taxes on owners of higher-end properties if prices continue to rise, it said. 

Hong Kong home prices have climbed about 50 percent since the start of last year, surpassing a 1997 peak that was followed by a six-year deflationary slump. Central bank head Norman Chan has said the U.S. Federal Reserve's expanded monetary stimulus may spur inflows of cash to Hong Kong, where a currency peg to the dollar prevents officials from raising interest rates to cool demand. "We are fully aware of the risks of an acceleration of the credit-fueled asset cycle," Chan, of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, said in a statement today. The central bank "will introduce appropriate and timely prudential supervisory measures to ensure banking stability," he said. 

Since April, the government has raised stamp duty on some home sales, increased down-payment ratios, stopped offering residency to foreigners who buy property in the city and increased land auctions to boost supply. 

Luxury Properties 

Residential property prices will likely post a further 30 percent gain by the end of 2011, Credit Suisse Group AG said in a report this month. Buyers from China are fueling demand for luxury properties such as the homes in Sheung Shui, near the Shenzhen border, that Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. has been selling since October. 

"The government is likely to further raise stamp duties as suggested by the IMF," but excess liquidity will limit the effectiveness of such measures, said David Ng, a property analyst at the Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. in Hong Kong. 

The Hang Seng Property Index, which tracks developers such as Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd. and Sun Hung Kai, has climbed 11 percent this year, outpacing the 7.6 percent gain in the Hang Seng Index. Both the real-estate index and the overall benchmark have fallen from a peak on Nov. 8. 

"Positive economic news is translating to very high levels of property price inflation," Nigel Chalk, the Washington-based China mission chief at the IMF, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. 

Higher Inflation 

Higher rents will probably push up consumer price inflation to about 5 percent by the end of 2011, the IMF said. Rental costs caused that measure of prices to increase 2.6 percent in September. 

Hong Kong should withdraw fiscal stimulus in the 2011 budget as the economy is "now back onto a robust growth trajectory," supported by China's expansion and the global recovery, the IMF said. The government allocated one-off handouts, including salaries tax rebates and waivers of property rates, of HK$20.4 billion ($2.6 billion) for the 12 months ending March 31 next year. 

The IMF today raised its growth forecast for Hong Kong to a range of 5 percent to 5.5 percent in 2011 from last month's forecast of 4.7 percent. It expects the economy to expand 6.75 percent this year. Hong Kong reported last week a more-than-estimated 6.8 percent expansion in the third quarter from a year earlier, after a year-long contraction starting in late 2008. 

The currency peg has served as a "robust anchor" to the economy, the IMF said. Still, prices in goods and the labor market could be driven down should there be "a move to a tightening bias in the United States or a slowdown in China," it said. 

Hong Kong's economy would benefit from further developing the offshore market in yuan trade and financial investments, the fund said. Chinese regulators have loosened restrictions on the yuan's use in international trade since the start of 2009 and agreed to foreign companies issuing yuan-denominated bonds through Hong Kong in February.  

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留言(2) | 引用(0) | 話題(地產)

[1] 生活甜蜜美滿...推

生活甜蜜美滿...推
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[引用] | 作者 催情無限 | 26th Jul 2011 | [舉報垃圾留言]

[2] 越炒越熱

上屆政府未能遏止樓價大升,本屆政府不得不出「辣招」,遏制炒風,試圖令樓市降溫。如今交投淡靜,地產代理們又大呼無法生存。無殼蝸牛仍要等到樓價可以供得起才敢置業。

老牛cowboy
[引用] | 作者 老牛cowboy | 2nd Nov 2013 | [舉報垃圾留言]